Methodology
How the tracker works
A retirement tracker is only useful if you can trust it. Here's exactly where our data comes from, how we verify it, and how deals get scored.
Where the data comes from
We build on licensed and sanctioned sources first — not scraping:
- Brickset API — licensed catalog data: launch and exit dates, availability, and LEGO.com retail prices. Retirement signals come straight from the API.
- BrickLink official API — the aftermarket leg: six-month price-guide averages for new/sealed sets, pulled within published rate limits.
- Jay's Brick Blog RSS — gift-with-purchase thresholds and dates, Insiders promos, and retiring-soon list updates. Polled politely, credited and linked back.
LEGO.com: partnership-first. LEGO's terms don't permit automated copying of their site for commercial use, so we don't mine LEGO.com. We read their public last-chance list the same way any shopper would, and we're pursuing their official affiliate program as the sanctioned route for deeper access.
We also don't scrape sites whose terms forbid it (BrickEconomy, BrickWatch). Retailer clearance data comes through paid aggregation, not direct polling.
Verified, not guessed
- Re-checked within 24 hours. Every price and availability claim is verified again the day before an issue goes out.
- [UNVERIFIED] instead of a guess. If we can't confirm a price today, we tag it — we'd rather show you a gap than a guess.
- Verification rate published. Every issue states how many entries were verified same-day (our sample issue: 15 of 17, or 88%).
- Missing data scores zero. In our rubric, a missing factor gets 0 points — never an estimate.
Retirement dates, honestly
LEGO publishes no official retirement dates — only a last-chance list. And dates move: the UCS Millennium Falcon (75192) has had its retirement pushed back before.
- List membership is the primary signal. If a set is on LEGO's last-chance list, it's retiring. Dates are secondary.
- Dates are provisional. When we cite an expected retirement date, we treat it as an estimate and flag extension risk where we know it.
- "Retiring soon" means confirmed. We only use the phrase for sets on LEGO's list or with confirmed exit dates — never inferred.
How deals get scored
Every candidate deal gets a deterministic score from 0–100. No judgment calls, no vibes — the same inputs always produce the same score.
| Factor | What it measures | Max |
|---|---|---|
| F1 | Discount vs. MSRP (20%+ off = full marks) | 30 |
| F2 | Retirement urgency (closer date = more points) | 35 |
| F3 | Stock scarcity (out of stock + retiring = the danger zone) | 25 |
| F4 | Aftermarket signal — retired sets only, vs. MSRP | 10 |
- 80–100 "Hot" — instant alert to paid members, top of the digest
- 55–79 "Solid" — in the digest, ranked above Watch
- 30–54 "Watch" — monitored, published only if gaining fast
- Below 30 "Skip" — not published
Fame isn't a deal: in our sample issue the UCS Falcon scored 15 (Skip) because it's still at full MSRP. The Flower Arrangement at 20% off with 96 days left scored 45 (Watch).
What we never do
- Never suggest a set will go up in value or is a good investment. Aftermarket numbers are reported factually — what you buy is your call.
- Never present an unverified price as fact.
- Never claim "lowest price ever" without 90 days of price history.
- Never imply affiliation with the LEGO Group.
- Never guarantee an alert beats a sellout — sellouts move fast.
- Always disclose affiliate relationships.
That's the whole playbook
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